2. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT The prospects for the global economy remain gloomy. The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been going on since 2022, as well as significantly higher rates of inflation caused by this war, among other factors, have led to a significant slowdown in the global economy. Although the forecasts improved substantially over the course of the 2023 financial year, they are still restrained as a result of this. As part of this, there is evidence of a largely positive normalization of business and consumer sentiment, raw material prices are dropping and the disruption to the supply chain seen in the last financial year appears to have largely been overcome as logistics costs and delivery times for the resources the company needs are generally returning to the level they were at before the COVID pandemic. Significant financial and macroeconomic risks exist, on the one hand as a result of the simmering real estate crisis in China, and on the other from the continued development in rates of inflation. While both overall inflation and core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, are declining, both are expected to remain high at least in the short and medium term. Looking at the overall picture, economic risks are generally more balanced than they were in the last financial year, but there is still a risk of a downward trend. This illustrates the continuing level of uncertainty, particularly regarding the course of the war in Ukraine, its wider consequences and the recent uncertainties about the outcome of the war that has erupted in the Middle East. Ultimately, the situation that has been outlined means that the global growth forecasts from the leading organizations in this field, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank, are more uncertain than usual and are constantly being adjusted. The IMF's latest estimates suggest that the forecast for global economic growth remains broadly unchanged at 3.1 % for 2024 and 3.2 % for 2025, compared to previous estimates. These broadly unchanged forecasts indicate that the biggest risks to global economic development are now balanced and stabilized, but there are still downside risks given the issues described above. The estimates published are based on numerous assumptions about a wide range of macroeconomic factors, in particular the trend in the prices of fossil fuels and other resources and the general level of interest rates. For industrialized countries, the IMF expects growth of 1.5 % in 2024 and 1.8 % in 2025. For the euro zone, growth of 0.9 % is forecast for 2024. For 2025, the IMF expects growth of 1.7 % for the euro zone, while growth in Germany in particular is forecast to be below average at 0.5 % for 2024 and 1.6 % for 2025. For emerging markets and developing countries, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 4.1 % for 2024 and 4.2 % for 2025. A growth rate of 4.6 % is forecast for China in 2024 and 4.1 % in 2025. For India, economic output is forecast to increase by 5.7 % in 2024 and by 6.8 % in 2025. The IMF forecasts rates of inflation of 5.8 % for 2024 and 4.4 % for 2025. The future development of the global economy will depend in particular on the successful calibration of monetary policy, taking stock of the cumulative effects of previous interest rate hikes, which could otherwise have serious detrimental effects for the financial sector. Moreover, the course of the war in Ukraine and, more recently, also in the Middle East, and not least the level of economic recovery and demand from China represent key factors that will affect how the global economy develops going forward. This assessment is largely shared by the OECD and the World Bank. The IMF, in particular, also declares that there is increasing divergence in economic growth, as a slowdown in growth appears to be more pronounced in advanced economies than it does in emerging markets and developing countries. With the IMF’s forecast for global economic growth broadly unchanged, a major global economic downturn is not expected, although all forecasts in relation to the trend in the global economy remain subject to significant uncertainties. In the past 2023 financial year, the global1 motorcycle market displayed a positive trend (+2.7 %, equating to an increase of 90,000 motorcycles). In Europe2 the market, as measured by new registrations, increased again to more than 800,000 motorcycles (+11 %) following a small decline in 2022. The core markets of Germany (+12 %), France (+14 %), Italy (+15 %) and Spain (+13 %) in particular are benefiting from increased demand. This meant the market share rose from 10.0 % to 10.5 % (measured by the three core brands KTM, Husqvarna and GASGAS). In North America, sales (in contrast to Europe including motocross models) also rose and culminated in around 490,000 units sold (+4 %). The growth achieved by the three core brands saw the market share increase from 11 % to 12.6 % (previous year: 11.8 %). The trend in the Australian and New Zealand markets showed a slight decline of 3.2 %. However, as the registrations of KTM, Husqvarna and GASGAS rose by 3.4 %, the market share increased to 21.0 % (previous year: 19.7 %). The total volume is almost 67,000 motorcycles. 1 Related to the key sales markets of the KTM Group: DE, FR, IT, UK, ES, SE, BE, NL, AT, CH, FL, DK, NO, GR, PL, SL, HU, BALTIC, USA, CAN, AUS, NZ, JP, SA, TH, CN, AR, BR, CO. 2 Motorcycles = 120 cc excluding motocross, scooters, and ATVs, including electric motorcycles in the markets DE, FR, IT, UK, ES, SE, BE, NL, AT, CH, FI, NO, BALTIC. 113